Airbus Vs Boeing Aircraft by Airlines customer

IndiGo's potential order for 500 more A320neo aircraft: What does this mean for the narrowbody backlogs? IndiGo would comprise 15% (982 units) of the entire A320 backlog, up from its current 8%. Boeing’s largest unfilled 737 MAX order is from United, comprising 9% of the MAX backlog (408 units).

India would surpass the United States for largest outstanding A320neo family orders. India presently has 577 unfilled orders (including 482 from IndiGo) while airlines in the US have 686. Including IndiGo’s potential 500 aircraft order, and Air India’s previously announced but not yet confirmed 210 deal, India’s A320neo family backlog would grow to 1,287 – 1.9x the size of the US backlog for the A320neo.

Presently the A320neo and 737 MAX backlogs have similar sizes of unfilled orders from their largest customers. Excluding a potential new IndiGo order, the largest unfilled orders are:

1) Airbus: IndiGo 482 / Boeing: United 408

2) Airbus: AirAsia 362 / Boeing: Southwest 369

3) Airbus: Wizz 288 / Boeing: Ryanair 258 (including recent deal)

4) Airbus: Frontier 218 / Boeing: Lion 229

5) Airbus: Air India 210 / Boeing: VietJet 200

With a further 500 unit order from IndiGo, Airbus would take on some risk with a single customer comprising 15% of its largest programme. IndiGo’s 982 unit backlog would be 2.7x the size of the A320’s next-largest unfilled order, AirAsia with 362 units. Boeing’s largest unfilled 737 MAX order (United) is 1.1x the size of its second-largest (Southwest). Boeing's two largest 737 orders skew towards lower-risk replacement purposes versus speculative growth.

The overall A320neo family backlog would be 1.5x bigger than the 737 MAX backlog (including the new orders from IndiGo, Air India, and Ryanair). Boeing’s backlog still includes 125 MAX orders from Jet Airways, as well as large orders from Southeast Asian customers that may experience volatility. Some of those customers also have A320neo aircraft on order.

Compared to the 737 MAX, the A320neo backlog has been less concentrated. Excluding a potential IndiGo deal, the 10 largest unfilled A320neo airline orders comprise 36% of the backlog versus 48% for the 10 largest unfilled 737 MAX orders. An IndiGo 500 unit order would see the 10 largest A320neo orders increase to 41% of the backlog. This share would decrease as more customers place orders.

The large A320neo backlogs in India and the US contrast to mainland China, where airlines have 359 A320neo family aircraft on order. Chinese airlines generally order for deliveries within the next four to five years, in line with national economic cycles, whereas some US and Indian orders stretch into the 2030s. China-based lessors (this excludes Singapore’s BOC Aviation) have a further 200 A320neo family aircraft on order and may increasingly place their aircraft with Chinese airlines.

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